With Huckabee Out, Who Gets the Biggest Bump?

I have to give credit to Charles Krauthammer. A while back I wrote a blog post criticizing his handicap of the race for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. But he was spot on regarding Mike Huckabee. Krauthammer noted that the former Arkansas governor had a successful television show, was making lots of money, and was in the process of building a dream home in Florida. Thus the conservative columnist predicted that Huckabee would not run in 2012, and that prediction came true over the weekend. For Huckabee announced live on his Saturday night TV show that he had decided not to pursue the Republican nomination.

We found out after the fact that he was keeping everyone in suspense, including Fox News brass and even his closest personal advisers. And though he was still considering a run as late as last week, in the end he came to realize that the fire in the belly just wasn't there.

Now, another race begins. You can bet that even as I'm writing this, the campaign teams for all of the candidates who are pursuing the nomination are devising strategies to draw Huckabee's supporters to their camps.

So who has the best chance of getting a big bump in the polls with Huckabee out of the equation? I'd have to think that Huckabee's devout Christian values and his reputation as a hardcore social conservative would go a long way in determining that. Once they get over their disappointment, Huckabee supporters will be looking to those candidates who have the strongest platform on social conservative values.

One who immediately comes to mind is Rick Santorum. Anyone who is bold enough to draw up a connection between abortion and Social Security has to be considered a darling in the eyes of the religious right. I think it's fair to say that Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, and Michele Bachmann could also receive additional support. If she decides to run, it also might be a golden opportunity for Sarah Palin, who has always been very outspoken on abortion and other social moral issues.

I think most analysts would agree that the two biggest losers in this could be Mitt Romney and Donald Trump. Huckabee is no friend of Romney, and he even said as much publicly after making his announcement. As always, he was a gentleman in merely stating that they don't socialize together. "We're not close, you know, in personal ways," Huckabee said. A sharp contrast was drawn between his relationship with Romney and his close friendships with many others who are in the race. Still, Huckabee wanted everyone to know that he would support Romney if he were chosen as the candidate.

But in my eyes, his comments could be translated in this way. "Those of you who would have supported me should transfer that support to one of my friends, not to Romney. But in the end, if you do choose Romney, I'll support him over Obama because he's the lesser of two evils." That's how I see it.

Trump too could be a big loser in this because he is hardly a champion of social causes. The Donald is running on his expertise in finance and the hardline foreign policy he would adopt as Commander in Chief. No doubt his views are resonating with voters as they eat up his rhetoric on China, Pakistan, Libya, and the Middle East. In many ways, he seems to be the right candidate at the right time.

But his odds of drawing support from those who would have voted for Huckabee are slim to none. Unless of course, he can somehow sell the notion that he has had a major conversion and now sees the light when it comes to religion and family values. Probably not going to happen.

I can't wait until the next poll numbers come out and we begin to see how things are going to take shape with one less horse in the race, and a heavy favorite at that. My humble prediction is that Gingrich will get the biggest bump, and that Romney will suffer the most from Huckabee's decision. Hold on to your hats, my fellow conservatives. Things are about to get very interesting.