I have a message for those of you watching Super Bowl XLV tomorrow. Enjoy it. Relish it. Revel in it. Party hard. Because it could quite possibly be the last NFL game we see for quite a while. By now, we all know that the NFL's current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires on March 3, 2011. That's less than a month away, and the two sides are no closer to an agreement now than they were last year. The clock is ticking, and Commissioner Roger Goodell is beginning to feel a sense of urgency.
I always try to be as optimistic as I can, especially when I blog about things such as the current economic crisis, society's sharp decline in morals, and the sad state of education. But this time around, I'm not so optimistic. Now I know that many people keep saying that there's too much money at stake, and that owners and players will never risk damaging a sport that is at its height in popularity. But don't be so sure. Look at what's going on behind the scenes and you too may begin to question whether this deal will get done in time to save the 2011 season.
League owners want to extend the regular season from 16 to 18 games, while at the same time taking a larger slice of the revenue pie: $1 billion to be exact. Granted, technically they are not really extending the season, since they are eliminating two pre-season games and replacing them with regular season games. But in reality, they are asking starters to suit up and go to war two more times than they normally would. In the NFL, two more games is not insignificant, as it might be in baseball or basketball. The physical toll that the game of football takes on one's body is much greater than that of any other sport. To illustrate this point, one need only look at the countless concussions and astronomical numbers of players placed on injured reserve this past season. And yet the owners want to add two more regular season games to the schedule???
From the players' standpoint, this is the basic equivalent of taking a pay cut in exchange for an increase in workload. Seem fair to you? What person in their right mind would accept such conditions if their boss presented it to them in their next contract? Now you understand why the players are so upset.
Unfortunately though, the labor issue is not just about players versus owners. It's also about owners versus owners. The NFL has a revenue-sharing agreement in place, whereby the top 15 earners share profits with the bottom 17 teams. Those organizations that consistently finish at or near the top and have major expenses (take for instance, the mortgage Jerry Jones is now paying on his brandy new Cowboy Stadium) are not at all happy with the current CBA. They see teams that don't draw nearly as many fans and may not win nearly as many games doing just as well financially. Why? Because the bottom 17 usually don't have the same expenses and they get a share of the breadwinners' revenue. As a result, the Jerry Joneses and Robert Krafts of the NFL have drawn a line in the sand. If you ask me, they are going to hold out until they get a CBA in place that favors the haves over the have nots. That's going to be a problem. A major problem.
All of the owners are firmly entrenched in their battle with the union, and they've been building their war chest for some time in preparation for a lockout. Even their television revenues have been guaranteed for the upcoming season, whether games take place or not. Do you think they're going to give in to the players when they have such a sweetheart deal in place? I don't.
Thus I can't help but think that the NFL players' union may be fighting a losing battle. They don't have the same resources to endure a lockout as the owners do. The NFL union, unlike the MLB players' union, has never been willing to sacrifice short-term benefits for long-term gains. Believe me, I understand why. NFL players have much shorter careers, and thus a smaller window to make their millions before retiring. Losing an entire season to a labor dispute has a far more severe impact on a football player's career earnings than on those of a professional baseball player. That's why the owners have always had the leverage during the negotiation process. It's no different now than it was then.
Some NFL team union reps have spoken out and said all the right things, but to me they're just blowing smoke. They want it to appear as if there is solidarity among NFL players, but I don't believe there is. Just look at the battle on Twitter that occurred when Antonio Cromartie vented his frustration about a deal not being in place yet. Sure, there were NFL players who came to the defense of the union. But I don't care what anyone might say, the fact is that for every player who may want to dig in for the long haul, there are several others who are more concerned about missing a year's salary and losing their health benefits. The players are not as unified as union reps want to believe.
My theory is that two things will have to happen in order to achieve a new CBA in time to save the 2011 season. First, the Mike Browns of the NFL will have to give in to the Jerry Joneses. The small-market teams that have practically lived on welfare all these years will be forced to accept a smaller payout from the heavy hitters, or a deal will never get done. Second, the players are going to have to give in on some level. Maybe the owners won't get two extra regular season games and another $1 billion in revenue. But they'll get at least one more regular season game, and will definitely receive a larger revenue share, possibly a few hundred million. There's no doubt in my mind about that. The owners have the resources to hold out until they get what they want, and they will. The only question left is whether the players' union has the stomach to stand firm and sacrifice themselves for the futures of all NFL athletes. I'm not sure they do, but if they somehow develop the intestinal fortitude to fight the good fight, then there will be no 2011 season.
Before concluding this post, I guess I'm obligated to give my Super Bowl prediction. It's no secret that I'm pulling for the Pack, so I have to believe that Green Bay is going to pull it out. Final score: Packers 32, Steelers 26. I know, that's an odd score, right? But a certain person got stuck with the numbers 2 for Green Bay and 6 for Pittsburgh in his Super Bowl pool, so you can just call it wishful thinking on my part. Enjoy the game, and go Pack!
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