By now, you're all aware of the chaos that has erupted in the Middle East over the last week. It started in Lebanon, where Hezbollah managed to unseat a prime minister who was backed by the United States. Then it spread to Tunisia, where civil unrest was so widespread and so severe that it actually resulted in their president fleeing the country. From there, protestors took to the streets in Jordan and Yemen, though they were short-lived and did not have the impact of those in Lebanon and Tunisia. Finally, the month of January was capped off by a massive uprising in Egypt, where today they are attempting to get one million citizens to march in protest of President Hosni Mubarak. This is the one that all Americans should be most concerned about, for it can eventually serve as the ultimate game changer in the Middle East.
So what spurred all of this on all of a sudden? I believe that the world's dire economic situation has been the catalyst. I've written previous blog posts about the riots that occurred last year all over Europe. They started in Greece, then spread to France, Great Britain, and Italy. The common thread in each of these demonstrations was economics, everything from skyrocketing unemployment rates to reduced pensions to higher taxes and college tuitions.
The riots in Tunisia, though essentially about citizens clamoring for democracy, were sparked by the economic crisis. So it is with Egypt. People there are tired of being out of work and struggling to get by, and that is why the situation has finally imploded after 30 years of Mubarak rule. Now, the future is uncertain and the ramifications for the United States are potentially disastrous.
With over 80 million people, Egypt is the most populous nation in the Middle East. It has been a trend setter and a staunch U.S. ally for decades, helping to maintain political order in the world's most volatile region. But now that can all change. There is no doubting that Mubarak has abused his power over his 30 years as Egypt's leader, but as long as he was protecting U.S. interests, America was more than happy to send him $1.5 billion in aid annually. Unfortunately, as Mubarak's thugs beat back protestors and Egypt shut down the country's internet and wireless network, the citizens identified these actions with those of America. If we are supporting Mubarak, and he is treating his people poorly, then they view the United States as oppressing them as well. Perception is more important than reality, so they say.
As the disaster unfolds before our very eyes, one can only look back and acknowledge that President Bush was exactly right in his approach to the Middle East. For the longest time, the Arab world has been an exception to the laws and politics of human nature. Much of this is due to Sharia law, and the rest of the world, fearful of lashing out at the Muslim religion, has stood back and accepted the general lack of liberty in Arab nations. President George W. Bush, mindful of this situation, posed the following question in November of 2003:
"Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty? Are millions of men and women and children condemned by history or culture to live in despotism? Are they alone never to know freedom and never even have a choice in the matter?"
He was one of the few world leaders, and maybe even the only world leader, bold enough to challenge Arab exceptionalism. Recent events have proven his theory to be one-hundred percent accurate. Arab citizens yearn for the same freedoms that we have. They want to be free of the government's secret police. They want to be able to read a newspaper that has not been censored. They want to vote in free elections. In truth, their people are no different than our people.
But unfortunately, the Obama administration dismissed Bush's agenda as overly ideological and something he was merely using to justify the invasion of Iraq. In reality, the former president was defending self-government and human rights, not the use of force against Arab nations. Now, our current president has been caught off guard by the events that have transpired in Egypt, and it has become quite clear that his abandonment of Bush's approach is nothing short of tragic.
So what do we do now? The options are few and none of them are all that attractive. Do we continue to support Mubarak, knowing full well that he is an oppressive dictator and thus alienate the Egyptian people even further? Or do we turn our backs on a leader who has been our ally for decades and leave the future of Egypt's political landscape to chance? This may help us win favor with Egyptians, but it could result in Muslim extremists rising to power, forming another Iran. That would be the last thing America needs in the Middle East.
For now, President Obama is working with Mubarak, trying to cajole him into loosening the reigns and granting more rights to the people he governs. Will it work? That remains to be seen. Calling for his entire cabinet to resign did little to appease Egyptians, making it crystal clear that it is Mubarak who they want out. In the end, Egypt's military will be the wildcard. Whoever they support, their president or their people, will ultimately emerge as the victor in this tug of war. As Americans, we can only stand on the sidelines and hope for the best. For that, we can thank our president, who shunned the concerns of the previous administration only to have them come back to bite him. Let's just hope that we don't pay the ultimate price for his ignorance and incompetence.
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