The Obama administration is on its heels, fighting a two-front war in the battle to keep the healthcare bill alive. From the time this bill was passed in the most devious of ways, it has come under fire from those on the right. Poll after poll clearly demonstrated that the majority of Americans opposed it, but that didn't stop the president from pushing ahead and forcing it down our collective throats. Now, it may be coming back to bite him, and in a big way.
First, after capturing sixty House seats in the mid-term elections, Republicans vowed to introduce a bill that would bring about the repeal of the healthcare act. They followed through on that promise, and passed the bill by a count of 245-189 in the House. From there, it went to the Senate, where Majority Leader Harry Reid assured the left that it wouldn't even make it to the floor for a vote. But Republicans made sure that it did, attaching it as an amendment to the $35 billion FAA re-authorization bill. The vote just took place yesterday, and the Senate voted along party lines, rejecting the repeal by a count of 51-47.
All along, Democrats had been accusing Republicans of wasting time on a bill that had no chance of passing. But I would argue that the Republicans did the right thing, and for two reasons. First, it showed the American people that they were willing to follow through on their promise to repeal the healthcare bill. Second, it forced Democrats to go on record as saying that they were for Obamacare. All the Democrats in the Senate did so, and all but four voted against the repeal in the House. This gives the Republicans a great deal of ammunition to use against the Democrats who are up for re-election in 2012.
But this is just one front of the war being waged on Obamacare. The other comes by way of a lawsuit that has been filed by twenty-six states, declaring that the law is unconstitutional. The main argument here is that the government can't force citizens to purchase health insurance against their will. To date, four decisions have been handed down by the courts. Two judges, both appointed by Democratic politicians, issued decisions in favor of the Obama administration. Two other judges, both appointed by Republican politicians, made judgments for the plaintiff.
In one decision for the plaintiff, the mandate for citizens to purchase health insurance was declared unconstitutional. However, the remaining components of the healthcare act were upheld. But the second decision, handed down by U.S. District Judge Robert Vinson, found the entire act to be unconstitutional. Judge Vinson's logic was that the mandate to purchase health insurance was inseverable from the healthcare law, thus voiding the entire act. He also stated that Congress exceeded the boundaries of its authority. This caused liberals everywhere to label Vinson an activist judge, which is utterly ridiculous considering he was merely upholding the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution.
Needless to say, this decision dealt a major blow to the president and re-energized the right. But the Obama administration, along with several Democrats in congress, are saying all the right things. They believe that in the end, they will prevail and that the healthcare act will be upheld, thus becoming the law of the land. Judge Vinson's decision all but assures that this case will make it all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which could rule on it later this year or some time in 2012.
From the time this bill was passed, it stunk to high heaven. Cornhusker kickbacks, Louisiana Purchases, back-room deals, clandestine discussions...the process was as underhanded and unscrupulous as could be. It all resulted in a 2,000+ page monstrosity that no one understood and no one could explain. President Obama failed miserably in communicating the bill clearly and comprehensibly to the American people. Nancy Pelosi encouraged her colleagues to pass the bill and worry about its contents later. There were no Senate hearings to examine the bill's constitutionality. The president took all the short cuts to get the bill passed, and in the end, he got what he wanted.
After the mid-term elections, Obama, humbled by his party's sound defeat, expressed regret over the process by which the bill was passed. He made the excuse that in an effort to get things done, he didn't pay enough attention and give enough care to how they got done. You think? But utterly, he still remained defiant and believed that the healthcare bill had nothing to do with the drubbing Democrats received at the hands of the Republicans. Instead, he blamed it entirely on the economy and resolutely declared that he would continue to fight for healthcare reform.
Along the way, some interesting things have happened. Several entities have applied for exemptions to the healthcare bill, and received them. In some cases it is understandable, such as the Amish who believe that healthcare is ultimately the responsibility of their Church. Personally, I have no problem with this. But then, there are the multitude of unions that have asked for, and received, an exemption. To date, forty-percent of those requesting exemptions from the healthcare bill have been unions. These are the same unions that gave the president their undying support in the election. These are the same unions that clamored for healthcare reform. But now that they realize their healthcare costs will actually rise as a result of this bill, they want to be exempt? Does that sound just a tad hypocritical? But the Obama administration, in an effort to take care of those who took care of them, have been all too happy to give the unions what they want. It's disgusting.
Make no mistake about it. The president, along with the Democrats in congress who are now on record as supporting it, own the healthcare bill. It's theirs, one-hundred percent. To have it declared unconstitutional would be an embarrassment of epic proportions. Right now, there are two ways the bill can die. One is for the Republicans to win the presidency, obtain control of the Senate, and maintain their majority in the House following the 2012 election. The other is for the Supreme Court to declare it unconstitutional. My prediction is that the law will indeed be declared unconstitutional after it reaches the U.S. Supreme Court.
If history is any indicator whatsoever, then Justices Scalia, Thomas, Alito, and Roberts will continue to maintain their strict interpretation of the Constitution. I can't see any one of these justices voting in favor of Obamacare. The liberal justices, Breyer, Ginsburg, Sotomayor, and Kagan, will most likely decide to uphold the healthcare act. Though one never knows, for even they have joined their Republican counterparts recently in several cases. America's most liberal court, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, which represents most of the western United States, has been soundly rebuked as of late. The justices have voted unanimously to overturn five consecutive decisions coming out of the 9th circuit, and have used scathing language in their reversals. Still, I have to believe that the more liberal justices will vote to uphold Obamacare.
The wild card, as always, is Justice Anthony Kennedy. He has been the swing vote in many a case, and it is not too far-fetched to say that the fate of the healthcare bill resides solely in his hands. But he has also been a stauch defender of strict constitutional interpretation, and that is why I believe he will side with the conservative justices on this one. Thus my final prognostication is that Obamacare will be declared unconstitutional by a vote of 5-4.
President Obama has had a rough few months. His party suffered, as he put it, "a shellacking" in the mid-term elections. The healthcare bill, which he undoubtedly considers his greatest achievement since taking office, has been under constant attack and just suffered a major setback at the hands of Judge Robert Vinson. His cap and trade legislation died a painful death. He was strongarmed by Republicans into extending tax cuts for the wealthy. The crisis in Egypt has left the president with few options and has him desperately seeking solutions. He seems to accumulate more gray hairs every time we see him on television. There is no rest for the weary, and I can't help but wonder how he might respond if his baby is struck down by the Supreme Court. Will he scold the justices, as he did at the 2010 State of the Union address? Will he show fortitude and express his will to continue the fight, all while wearing a wry smile on his face? Or will he announce that he has all but given up and decide not to seek a second term? I, for one, can't wait to see what happens. But whether he decides to stay or go, I can't help but firmly believe that the Republicans will take back the White House in 2012. It won't be long before Americans can say good-bye to Obamacare, and to the man who engineered it.
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