As Americans wake up to go to work on this Monday morning, many of them may not realize that this is a crucial week for our country. This Friday, March 4th, represents a deadline that could bring about the shutdown of two major institutions. One is something we love dearly, and the other is something we loathe, yet remains a necessary evil.
What Americans love dearly is the National Football League. Over the years, it has eclipsed baseball as the national pasttime, and now brings in approximately $9 billion in gross revenue per year. Unfortunately, how to divide that $9 billion between players and owners has become a major point of contention that threatens to postpone or even outright cancel the 2011 season.
Despite hours and hours of negotiating in front of a federal mediator over the past week, all sources are indicating that the two sides remain far apart. They will meet one last time today in what has to be considered the calm before the storm. If no agreement is reached, and I don't see how it possibly will, then NFL owners will decide tomorrow whether to lock players out for the 2011 season. On Thursday, the players will decertify as a union and look to seek an injunction against owners to prevent a lockout. Get ready, because this is going to get real messy rather quickly.
I said in previous blog posts that no agreement will be reached unless the players gave in. The owners are united in their stance, thanks to Jerry Jones, Jerry Richardson, Robert Kraft, and Pat Bowlen, all of whom are driving the bus on the owners' labor relations committee. When Richardson stands up in front of his fellow owners and says, "It's time to take back our !$#@ing league," then it can't be a good sign of things to come.
I still firmly believe that the owners have the upper hand. They have been storing items in their war chest for some time in preparation for this moment, and are guaranteed television revenue in 2011, whether or not the games are actually played. Can we say the same for the players? Have all of them been putting money away so that they're in a position to hold out until their demands are met? I doubt it. Besides, the Antonio Cromarties of the NFL who desperately need money and health insurance to support their seven kids will be making a stink sooner or later.
Allow me to repeat my earlier prediction regarding the outcome of this debacle. Only two things can happen. Either the owners get what they want and save the 2011 season, or the players refuse to give in and there is no 2011 season. Those who claim that both sides will come together to work this out peacefully are in dreamland. They say, "There's too much money at stake." Yes, there is a lot of money at stake. And that is all the more reason to prolong the dispute.
The owners aren't worried about the short term. They have enough resources to hold out until 2012, so they're focused solely on working out a collective bargaining agreement that benefits them in the long term. They believe that they can outlast the players and are willing to play the waiting game. When all is said and done, they know that the fans will return next year. For them, cancelling the 2011 season is a small price to pay for getting what they want in the end.
Do you think they really care about the millions of people who rely on NFL games for seasonal jobs? Please. Will they have pity for the sports bars, sporting goods stores, and anyone else for whom the NFL is a major portion of their revenue? No way. What about fantasy football owners? Don't make me laugh. Expect union decertification by Thursday, followed by an injunction, followed by an ugly war of words leading to the possible cancellation of the 2011 season. I'll say it again. If players don't give in at some point, then start making other plans for Sundays in the fall.
So why else is March 4th so important? The institution we all love to hate, our wondrous federal government, will also be shutting down by this Friday if no deal is reached on the budget. Republicans and Democrats have been in a stalemate for some time, as the GOP keeps its pledge to make drastic spending cuts. Dems have railed against the cuts as irresponsible, and House Republicans are refusing to budge.
But unlike the NFL, this Friday will not bring doom and gloom for the nation's government. Just before the congressional recess last week, Senator John Kyl and Representative Paul Ryan, Chair of the House Budget Committee, made it clear that there will not be a shutdown. Sure enough, House Speaker Boehner just announced that he would extend an olive branch to the Democrats, allowing a two-week extension of the deadline. Although the extension would consist of cuts that are far less than the ones proposed for the remainder of the year, the Speaker made it clear that he was committed to the original budget proposal in the long run. The extension will be brought to the House floor for a vote some time tomorrow, and I'd say it's a foregone conclusion that it will pass overwhelmingly.
So the way I see it, the government will continue operating past this week, while the NFL will be shut down. I think I speak for millions of Americans when I say, "Too bad it isn't the other way around." Maybe at some point the roles will get reversed, but until then, the only punting, passing, and kicking we'll see will be in Washington.
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